Crude oil prices are rising rapidly. The USA is rapidly using up its air defence missiles. Trump exchanges views with Putin on the Iran war and Russia’s war of aggression: The Kremlin could hardly have wished for a better scenario. An analysis.
The meeting in the Kremlin with the heads of Russian oil and gas companies on Monday this week gave Vladimir Putin cause for satisfaction: “In the current conditions, competition between customers for energy suppliers is intensifying in order to ensure a stable and predictable supply of oil and gas,” he said. And with a “large dose of schadenfreude”, as the Wall Street Journal smugly put it, Putin reminded “not only my colleague in this room, but all our consumers in general” that stability is “exactly what Russian energy companies have always been known for.”
A fortnight ago, the Kremlin leader’s chances of being able to continue to finance his devastating war of aggression against Ukraine looked bleak. Now Putin can breathe a sigh of relief. Until now, the rising price collapse on the crude oil markets and the immense government spending on the war against Kiev had led to expectations of average economic growth of one per cent or less for 2026 and the coming years. After the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, the exploding prices for crude oil and natural gas “have given the Russian economy a new boost – at least temporarily,” analyses the Wall Street Journal.
Russia significantly improves its revenues
The contrast could not be clearer: Last year, Russia was able to sell its crude oil for an average of USD 50 per barrel. In order to stabilise the Russian state budget, the Kremlin needs a selling price of USD 59. At the beginning of this week, the price of crude oil shot up to 120 dollars. Now (as of 12:00 noon on Wednesday), the price of a barrel of Brent Crude Oil is just under 90 dollars. The consequences for Russia’s warfare are obvious: “The recent rise in global oil prices is providing a much-needed boost to the Russian government’s revenues,” writes one of the most knowledgeable foreign correspondents in Moscow, Steve Rosenberg of the BBC. The price jumps would help Russia “to continue financing its war against Ukraine.”
The longer crude oil prices remained high, the more the Kremlin’s war chest will fill up again, he said. Elina Ribakova, Director of the International Programme at the Kyiv School of Economics, fears that this would give Putin the financial means to open up new fronts in the Ukraine war or intensify the hybrid warfare against the West. She is worried that “if this were to continue for six months, Russia would become even more keen to do so”, as she told the Wall Street Journal. If US President Trump fulfils his announcement and relaxes the sanctions against Russia, he would be supporting Putin’s war against Ukraine and causing massive damage to Kiev and the Europeans.
Russia supports Iran in the war
The reports did not all cause a stir in the USA: Russia was passing on its satellite reconnaissance on the locations of US forces in the Middle East to Iran. This would enable Tehran to target its missile attacks on US facilities. Several major US media outlets, including CNN, the New York Times, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal, unanimously reported this a few days ago, citing US government circles. Since the start of the war, Russia has been supplying the Iranian leadership with the locations of American warships, fighter planes and other US military resources.
Russia has denied having passed on intelligence information to Tehran in order to attack American targets in the region, Trump’s chief negotiator Steve Witkoff said yesterday on the US television channel CNBC. Trump had spoken to Putin on the phone the day before, Witkoff explained. “The Russians have said that they did not do this (pass on satellite reconnaissance to Tehran).” And Steve Witkoff, a confidant of US President Trump, added verbatim: “We can take them at their word. But they said that.” On Monday morning, “Jared (Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law) and I had an independent phone call with Ushakov (the Kremlin’s foreign policy adviser), who repeated the same thing.”
Democratic US senator: Iran war helps Putin
The longer the war against Iran continues, the greater the risk for Ukraine, the West and the USA. In an opinion piece for the Washington Post, Democratic US Senator Jeanne Shaheen clearly points out the consequences of Trump’s and Netanyahu’s war of aggression for Ukraine: The war provides Putin with a financial lifeline at a time when his economy is faltering.
Oil and gas have accounted for around 30 to 50 per cent of the Russian state budget over the past ten years, writes the US senator. In addition, important military resources that could be used for the defence campaign in Ukraine are now being used up in the Iran war. In particular, the Patriot and THAAD air defence systems and the corresponding interceptor missiles are needed in Ukraine and are no longer available.
But the Trump administration is going in the opposite direction, Jeanne Shaheen summarises. “The government is easing sanctions and continuing negotiations with Russia as if Putin didn’t already have American blood on his hands.”